Euro 2012 | England v Ukraine France v Sweden Preview | Betting Tip

England v Ukraine 

 

The big news from the England camp is that the main man is back.  Wayne Rooney is available for selection in this game against the home team who will have a stadium full of fans to provide an intimidating atmosphere at the Donbass Arena in Donetsk.  There has been media speculation (surprise) that Rooney may be a bit of a loose canon, having sat out two difficult games for England.  The fact is that Wayne Rooney is a more nuanced player than he once was.  Last season he received 1 red and two yellow cards, in the previous two seasons he received 8 yellow cards in each campaign.

England report no injuries, so I expect Rooney to replace Carroll.

Ukraine will enjoy home advantage in this encounter, which will be a huge boost, but England are a better team; Ukraine lost to France, with whom England drew.  Ukraine may need to play without their talismanic striker, Shevchenko, who is carrying an injury to his knee.
Whilst England will qualify with a draw, Ukraine need a win.

Betting Tip

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England are 2.08 (21/20), which isn't great odds, but I can't decide whether there will be goals in this (probably not).

France v Sweden

France are in the lucky position of playing a team who have no possibility of qualification, wheras France need only a draw.  Doubtless Sweden will be playing for pride, and they have good players, if they are a little reliant on Ibrahimovic.
Neither team report any injuries.

Betting Tip

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France should sweep the Swedes aside, with Nasri, who is having a good tournament and Benzema, who is yet to shine.  They have playmakers and strikers with the ability to score.  So I would back France at 1.62 (5/8).

Euro 2012 | Spain v Croatia | Italy v Ireland | Betting Tip

Spain v Croatia (The "Biscotti" Game).

You may wonder what the above refers to.  In Italian horse racing, when a horse is doped to lose a race, the doping agent is given to the horse on a biscuit, or biscotti in Italian.

Your now wondering what horse doping has to do with Spain v Croatia.  It so happens that should Spain and Croatia draw 2-2, then they go through together irrespective of the result in the other match.

Assuming that there is no collusion, and for the good of the game, let us hope that the final score is not 2-2.  Croatia will need to win this match (or draw 2-2 or higher score draw) to go through without depending on Ireland to do well against Italy.  Spain need a draw to qualify, or a win to ensure first place.

Neither team has reported any injury concerns.

Betting Tip

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As Croatia need at least a goal to ensure qualification, this game will in all likelihood be open, which will suit Spain, so I would go for Over 2.5 Goals at 1.75 (8/11) at Betfair.  As a matter of interest, Correct Score 2-2 is ridiculously short at 12.5 (11/1), which I would avoid.

Italy v Ireland.

Ireland will want to get at least a goal here, if only to match the Netherlands dismal performance at this tournament.  It is also Damien Duff's 100th appearance.  If Ireland can avoid their now traditional early goal, then who knows what will happen.

The only injury concern is Balotelli, who has a knee injury and may be rested.

Betting Tip

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I can only see an Italy win here at 1.43 (4/9), which doesn't seem to offer much value.  An alternative market is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.84 (5/6) at Betfair.

Euro 2012 | Portugal v Netherlands Preview | Betting Tip

Portugal come into this match with a real chance of progressing; but their destiny is not entirely in their own hands.  If Germany beat Denmark, then Portugal will go through as runners-up with a win, draw or even a loss, as long as the loss is by a margin of only one goal. If Denmark draw with Germany, then Portugal are through with a win or draw.  If Denmark beat Germany, then Portugal will progress with a win, unless Denmark win with a one goal margin (other than 2-1 or 1-0).

They beat Denmark in their last match, and will need to take that momentum forward into this match.  They have a fully fit squad, and so Paulo Bento will be able to field the team he feels best suited to beating a Dutch team, which has been mis-firing.

The Netherlands can only progress if they win by a two goal margin and Denmark lose, which at least is simple.  The fly in their ointment is the fact that they have managed only one goal in 46 goal attempts over two matches.  They need, therefore to go for goals, and we can expect Huntelaar to start, possibly at the expense of Van Persie.  Huntelaar has looked disgruntled at being on the bench with Van Persie on the pitch, and Bert van Marwijk may decide to ring the changes.

Betting Tip

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Both teams will be desperate for the win here, and, although neither team have shown themselves to be goal-scoring machines, I think that in this match, there will be goals.  Betfair have Over 1.5 goals at 1.24 (1/4), and I think that that is a nailed on certainty.  Watch this space!

Euro 2012 | Greece v Russia Preview | Betting Tip

Russia, clear leaders of Group A arrive at this match in the National Stadium knowing that a win will see them winning the group and playing the runner-up from Group B.

While the BBC website is reporting that Russia have no injuries, Dick Advokaat at his press conference has confirmed that Aleksandr Kokorin has a hamstring injury ruling him out of the rest of the tournament, and Konstantin Zyryanov has an illness, which makes him doubtful for the Greece game.

For Greece, however, this is a game which they have to win in order to progress.  And they will dos without their first choice goalkeeper, Costas Chalkias, and Avraam Papadopoulis.  Sokratis Papastathopoulis returns following his one match suspension, however.

Betting Tip

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I can only see a win for Russia here; they have played so much better than the other teams and are the only team to have a positive goal difference in the group and Over 2.5 Goals can be backed at 2.04 (21/20) at Betfair.

Euro 2012 | England v Sweden Preview | Betting Tip

Tony Blair, following his 1997 election victory told his more left-leaning backbench MPs not to forget that it was New Labour what won it.  By which he meant the the voters had returned New Labour, and not the old socialist Labour.

At whichever stage England leave this Euro 2012 tournament, Roy Hodgson might well echo these sentiments in a press conference.  It will have been a defensive 4-4-2 what (nearly) won it.

Although it has been widely reported that Andy Carroll will be called into the team with Oxlade-Chamberlain relegated to the bench because Sweden are rightly perceived to be fragile against high crosses and corners, I don't expect England to be very much more attack minded than in the France game.

Andy Carroll gives England a target man they missed against France, and I expect an old fashioned 'attack on the break' type of game similar to the last one, albeit looking to get round behind the Swedish defence as often as possible.  Ukraine did this with some success, as can be seen here;

Analysis by FourFourTwo Statzone [iTunes link]

One word of caution; Steven Gerrard said, a little dismissively, at yesterday's press conference, "Sweden are no France."  To which the obvious answer is "England are no France, either."  Let's hope that that comment doesn't come back to haunt him.

Betting Tip

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England are good defensively, and have yet to score more than one goal per game under Roy Hodgson, so I expect a low scoring game which England should have the ability to win.

With that in mind I suggest England to win (Draw No Bet) at Betfair at 1.74 (8/11).

Euro 2012 | Croatia v Italy Preview | Betting Tip

Italy had a well-deserved draw against Spain in their first match and will be looking forward to a hard fought win against a Croatia who come from a relatively easy win against an out-of-sorts Ireland.

Italy have no new injury worries, and Prandelli will need to decide between starting with Balotelli, who gave an unimpressive performance against Spain.  The obvious alternative is to promote Di Natale from the bench.  Croatia looked weak at set-pieces, and Italy will hope to test them as often as possible.

Croatia may consider themselves lucky that Shay Given, the Irish keeper, had an off day in their last match, and with a fully fit squad, may like to pit two strikers against an Italy defence which many suspect is susceptible to crosses and corners.


Betting Tip


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This is a difficult game to call.  So, being conservative, I would plump for Italy win or draw available at Bet365 for 1.33 (30/100).

Euro2012 | Denmark v Portugal Preview | Betting Tip

After shocking The Netherlands in their first match of the tournament, Denmark are reporting no injuries for their next match against Portugal.  Denmark are developing a habit of defeating teams which are, on paper at least, better; having already beaten Portugal three times in the previous four occasions the two teams have met.

Portugal are also injury free.  Following their much criticised defensive performance against Germany; a match which they lost,will need to win this encounter.  Their coach, Paulo Bento, said to reporters;

"There are no favourites tomorrow.  Of course, Denmark are better placed, but we'll give 100%, and having beaten them before, we can beat them again."

Betfair have other ideas.  The betting exchange has Portugal at 1.94 (20/21), and they are, man-for-man, the better team.


Betting Tip


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My advice for this game would be to lay Portugal with the intention of backing them for higher odds soon after the game starts.

Euro2012 | Match Preview Greece v CZech | Betting Tip

The two teams stride out at the National Stadium in Warsaw this evening having had quite different encounters in their first match.

The Czech Republic will be smarting from their 4-1 defeat to Russia.  Statistically, though, the Czechs pretty well matched their Russian opponents; except, of course, in the one stat which matters, the final score.  One key difference was that the Czechs played a little higher up the pitch than Russia, as can be seen below.

 

Screenshots from the FourFourTwo Stats Zone App

The Greek side, however, although they managed a draw with hosts, Poland, will need to play tonight without their first choice centre halves.  Sokratis Papaastathopoulis is suspended for tonight's encounter, somewhat harshly in most people's view, and his partner, Papadopoulos, is injured.

In order to progress, both teams will want a win from this encounter.  Greece will face Russia in their last match and so will want to put 3 points in the bag tonight, but the Czech Republic could be out of the tournament if they fail to win.

Betting Tip


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These teams may well cancel each other out, but there should be goals, so I will tentatively go for a 1-1 draw, available at 7.4 (13/2) at Betfair.

If the Correct Score market is a bit rich for you the draw is currently priced at 3.3 (9/4).

Don't put your shirt on it, though.

Euro 2012 | What Now For England

As a wave of small-time thievery swept England this evening, with thousands of England fans leaving their homes and pubs saying - "We'll take that," following Roy Hodgon's England team's 1-1 draw with France, the question of what this means for the England team.

The England performance was certainly at the very least, workman-like.  They were out-passed and suffered from only having 35% of possession, but defended well and kept France down to just the one goal from 21 attempts (12 of which were blocked).

As this will have been the most difficult match for Hodgson's men, playing Sweden next, followed by Ukraine, qualification from the group should be relatively straightforward.

England is available on Betfair at 1.61 (8/13), which seems like a good price.

After Sweden, there remains a more difficult encounter with Ukraine, who responded well to the home crowd's encouragement to beat Sweden 2-1.  England, however, will have Wayne Rooney available which should offer more firepower in front of goal.